60 Second: They’re under starter’s orders


They’re under starter’s orders


If you really want to know what’s happening in politics – don’t bother with opinion polls, as Brexit and The Donald have proven.

Go to where people have to put their mouths where their money is: the bookies. And even the bookies get it wrong, but not the punters.

So my favourite bookie, Paddy Power, of course, took a double bath on Trump: first, like everyone else (except me and a few sceptics) they didn’t expect him to win and then they paid out early on Hilary.

But the punters knew what they were doing and cleaned up. Unfortunately, I stopped gambling as a New Year’s resolution when I was 30 (just a few short years ago), but I’m still looking forward to Property Day at Ascot in July (wink, wink).


But the bookies do provide a much more accurate guide to the real marketplace of politics. So, what is Paddy saying – reflecting the betting – now?

Will the UK trigger Article 50 by the end of March? Well, it looks tight as Paddy is giving 6/4 to the UK NOT exiting. This, of course, could signal a General Election in the late spring, a good side-bet.

And the betting public is putting a general election in 2017 as second favourite at 2/1, behind the fixed date of 2020 at 10/11. And the Conservatives are hot favourites to win at 8/13, way ahead of Labour on 5/1 and No Overall Majority at 9/5, but the Tories would take more seats (1/4).

And if Mrs May’s charm offensive with  Mr Trump does not ‘Make Great Britain Great’ again and she has to step aside, who is the favourite to take her place? Step forward, Mr Boris Johnson.

And if you want a total outsider, you have Wayne Rooney as PM at 200/1 and Donald Trump at 500/1 (either Paddy has a sense of humour or knows something we don’t).

Great fun, you might say, but I’ll bet (ooops) it is more accurate than any opinion poll.

Have a good weekend,


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